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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/23 06:18
Mixed Prices Ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report
Cattle futures could not find traction on Thursday, closing mixed. Cash
cattle did not trade, and traders are looking ahead to the Cattle on Feed
report. Hogs continue to find support despite lower cash.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $269.84 +$0.51*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $100.40 +$0.64**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle futures could not find traction on Thursday, with futures closing
mixed. Cash cattle did not trade with packers maybe waiting until the Cattle on
Feed report is released. The estimates for the report are for on-feed numbers
on Jan. 1 at 96.8% with a range of 96.0%-97.6% compared to January 2025.
Placements in December are at 93.1% with a range of 88.0%-95.1%. Marketed in
December at 101.7 with a range of 100.0%-102.0%. The Make America More Ground
Beef (MAMGB), is an initiative designed to help dairy farmers monetize surplus
dairy-origin cattle, increase domestic beef supply, and help lower grocery
prices for beef. Western United Dairies is promoting this idea. It is not a
mandate, but a voluntary program open to all U.S. dairy operations, potentially
launching as early as this spring. Western United Dairies shares that the MAMGB
program aims to divert 800,000 to 1 million additional dairy-origin cattle in
spring 2026, injecting an estimated 900 million to 1.1 billion pounds of lean
trim into the ground beef market. They claim it will lower retail ground beef
prices by 18% to 25%, but also increase beef demand due to the lower prices. It
seems like this would offset each other, leaving the market with prices as they
are.
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