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DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/11 10:44
Midday Grain Selloff: Soybeans Tumble 25 Cents, Wheat and Corn Also in the
Red
Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents lower at midday, soybeans are 24 to 25 cents
lower, and wheat is 12 to 21 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market is firmer at midday with the S and P 81 points higher.
The dollar index is flat. The interest rate products are mixed. Energy trade is
weaker with crude 3.00 lower and natural gas .01 cent lower. Livestock trade is
mixed with cattle sharply higher. Precious metals are flat with gold off 1.00.
CORN:
Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents lower at midday heading towards the WASDE report
at 11 AM CT with overall rangebound action continuing as we give back the late
surge from yesterday pre-report. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for
yield at 178.1 BPA down from 180.7 last month with carryout at 1.533 billion
down from 1.653 last month. Ethanol margins should remain solid near term with
blenders again getting a boost from unleaded action this week. The daily export
saw 264,000 metric tons old to Mexico with weekly sales strong at 1.929 million
metric tons. Weather looks to cool a bit with rains likely to slow early
harvest in a few areas but overall maturity will remain ahead of normal. Basis
will likely drift short term with bigger harvest pressure likely to pick up
into midmonth. On the December chart the 20-day at $5.22 is support with the
fresh high at $5.49 as further resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans are 24 to 25 cents lower at midday with broad selling so far as we
pull back from the fresh highs scored yesterday with products fading as well
along with the deeply overbought conditions easing for the first time in 3
weeks. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower and oil is 190 to 200 points lower. On the
report, trade is looking for yield at 52.5 BPA vs. 52.7 last month and carryout
at 290 million bushels vs. 320 last month. Weather should ease heat stress
short term to help the later maturing beans but the overall pace will remain
ahead of normal maturity wise. The daily export wire was quiet after the early
week sales with weekly sales strong at 2.637 million metric tons with 42,600 of
old meal, 284,500 of new, and 100 of oil. On the November contract chart
support is the 20-day at 12.72 where we find the 20-day moving average with
resistance the fresh high at 13.35.
WHEAT:
Wheat is 12 to 21 cents lower at midday with longs taking profit pre-report
as well fade to nearby support levels as we head towards the weekend with Black
Sea rumors shifting back towards peace talks. On the report trade is looking
for carryout at 720 million bushels, virtually unchanged from last month.
Weekly export sales were soft at 194,200 metric tons. Better rains into
midmonth should help support early wheat drilling on the plains. Matif wheat is
solidly lower. On the KC December chart support is the 20-day at $8.01 which we
are testing with the fresh high at $8.57 as resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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