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DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/14 10:46
Corn, Soybeans Rise While Wheat Falls at Midday
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday, soybeans are 10 to 11 cents
higher, and wheat is 4 to 8 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market is weaker at midday with the S and P 47 points lower.
The dollar index is 45 points higher. The interest rate products are firmer.
Energy trade is firmer with crude 3.40 higher and natural gas .06 cent higher.
Livestock trade is mixed with cattle sharply higher. Precious metals are flat
with gold off 91.00.
CORN:
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday as we continue to consolidate
post report with some periods of two sided trade as outside markets gyrate. On
the WASDE report Friday, we saw yield at 178.5 BPA vs. 178.4 expected with
carryout sliding to 1.567 billion bushels vs. 1.653 last month as demand
dropped a bit with yield. Ethanol margins should remain solid near term with
blenders again getting a boost from unleaded action again to start the week.
The daily export was quiet with weekly export inspections solid at 1.525
million metric tons with YTD pace at 100% early in the marketing year. Weather
looks to slow early harvest with rains through the middle of the belt with
weekly crop progress likely to keep steady conditions with maturity and harvest
just ahead of pace for now. Basis will likely drift short term with bigger
harvest pressure likely to pick up into midmonth. On the December chart the
20-day at $5.22 is support with the fresh high at $5.49 as further resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans are 10 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade hanging right above
$13.00 area on the November contract post report with broad product strength.
Meal is 4.50 to 5.50 higher and oil is 70 to 80 points higher. On the report,
we saw 52.8 BPA vs. 52.7 last month and carryout at 310 million bushels vs. 320
last month. Wetter weather should slow maturity and early harvest with steady
conditions expected on the weekly report, with maturity still solidly ahead of
the 5 year average. The daily export wire was quiet to start the week with
weekly export inspections showing improvement at 672,759 metric tons but YTD
pace continues to lag at 84%. On the November contract chart support is the
20-day at 12.72 where we find the 20-day moving average with resistance the
fresh high at 13.35.
WHEAT:
Wheat is 4 to 8 cents lower with early gains fading on reports of Black Sea
de-escalation relative to energy targets along with continued dollar strength.
On the report carryout was unchanged at 717 million bushels. Weekly export
inspections were rangebound at 456,720 metric tons with YTD pace continuing to
lag at 72%. Better rains into midmonth should help support early wheat drilling
on the plains with planting progress expected to be in line with the 5 year
average. Matif wheat has turned lower after early strength. On the KC December
chart support is the 20-day at $8.01 which we closed just below with the fresh
high at $8.57 as resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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