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DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/01 10:50
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Higher at Midday Wednesday
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 3 to 4 cents higher; wheat futures are 7 to 11 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 3 to 4 cents higher; wheat futures are 7 to 11 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is firmer at midday with the S&P 18 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 15 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is
weaker with crude off 1.10 and natural gas off .05. Livestock trade is mostly
higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 55.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with early two-sided trade
turning firmer into the day session as we look to extend the post-report
bounce. On the report, we saw corn acres unchanged at 95.3 million versus 94.99
million expected, with stocks at 5.295 billion bushels (bb) versus 5.408 bb
expected. The weekly ethanol report showed production 27,000 barrels per day
higher and stocks up by 100,000. Weekly export sales are expected to be in the
1.0 million metric ton (mmt) to 1.2 mmt range between crop years. Weather is
expected to remain warmer than normal for most with the rains mostly
concentrated to the north in the short term. Basis action looks to remain flat
in the short term. On the September chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.25
3/4 is resistance with the fresh low at $4.07 as support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with meal leading the
product complex as we were able to rebound post-report despite the slightly
negative numbers with the biggest overnight gains fading Wednesday. Meal is
1.00 to 2.00 higher and oil is 60 to 70 points lower. On the report, acres were
up 700,000 as expected to 85.4 million with stocks slightly higher at 1.061 bb
versus 1.046 bb expected. Basis will need further crush margin recovery to hold
recent gains as July goes into delivery with oil dragging margins lower.
Weather should add some short-term heat stress, but moisture concerns remain
limited for now. Weekly export sales are expected to be in the 400,000 to
800,000 metric ton (mt) range between crop years. On the September contract,
chart resistance is the 20-day moving average at $11.28, which we challenged
overnight, with the recent low at $11.07 1/2 as support.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 7 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade working to build
on the positive post-report action as harvest pressure should continue to ease.
On the report, all wheat acres were 1.1 million lighter than expected at 42.7
million with stocks at 920 million bushels (mb) versus 934 mb expected. Harvest
should continue to roll forth after recent storms as it expands to the
northwest. Matif wheat is firmer Wednesday morning with the weaker euro
supporting trade. Weekly export sales are expected to be in the 250,000 to
450,000 mt range. On the KC September chart, resistance is the 20-day moving
average at $6.36 with the fresh low at $6.10 3/4 as support.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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